It is 2020 and we all expected Liverpool to be on their way to their first premier league title in 30 years. After sweeping away all teams they faced in a 44 match unbeaten run, little did they know that the African saying that ‘when the antidote that will kill you hasn’t been discovered, it doesn’t mean your gods are the greatest’ was about to hit them in a way they least expected.
Nemesis
February didn’t come good for Liverpool in 2020 (the same month that contributed so much to Luiz Suarez’s goal drought back in 2013/14 and only 2 wins in 2019)
Liverpool travelled to Watford on 2nd February 2020 with the hopes of continuing their unbeaten run only to be met with a surprise 3-0 defeat by the home side which was followed with beatings by Chelsea and Atletico Madrid in a 3 match losing streak.
That notwithstanding, if there’s any cause for which Liverpool will blame their title halt on, it’s the Corona Virus!!
How the Virus has impacted their season
The coronavirus pandemic has disenchanted[WU1] the whole world with its infectious nature causing numerous associations to put a halt to their activities which require a gathering of the masses. The premier league is no exception hence it’s been currently suspended until further notice with the hopes of resuming in June.
But what if the pandemic exist for as long as the 1817 – 1824 cholera pandemic or the 1918 – 1920 Spanish flu pandemic. Football Associations will have to find a way to declare champions and relegated teams in each domestic league or better still, declare the season null and void. Per the next section, I believe Liverpool fans will prefer the former. J
Coefficient ranking system
The club coefficients are based on the results of clubs competing in the five previous seasons of the League. The rankings determine the seeding of each club in the current year’s competition.
If this system is adopted in the premier league to declare a winner, MANCHESTER CITY will be declared winners!!! Unfair right?
Analysis
Using the coefficient system and calculating the average points for each team by which a winner will be declared, Manchester city will occupy the first position with 79.80 points with Liverpool Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea filling the 2nd, 3rd and 4th positions with 78, 69 and 66.6 points respectively. A league standing which will seem unfair to Liverpool considering they currently lead Manchester city by 25 league points and need just 2 more wins [WU2] to win the league. That is, by their win ratio (probability) of 0.9425 (82pts won out of an available 87) they would be champions already with 3 game weeks postponed yet.
Using a 4 year average (considering this season isn’t over yet) Liverpool will still come second to Manchester City with an 8.5 points gap. (Man. City – 85.50 to Liverpool 77)
A click on the link below the chart will send you to the interactive visualization.
Conclusion
Though Pep hasn’t been his usual genius this season, all
things being equal, if this was Utopia, he will have coronavirus to thank for
his usual results and Liverpool might have to wait another 30 years for a
title!!!
By Ekow Okusu
